The latest report on food security in West Africa highlights ongoing challenges, particularly in regions affected by conflict. Here are the key takeaways:
Cereal Production: The final cereal production estimate for the Sahel and West Africa for 2023/24 is 77,064,092 metric tons, representing a slight decrease of 0.6 percent compared to the previous year but an increase of 4 percent compared to the five-year average. However, significant declines in production were observed in conflict-affected areas such as the Liptako Gourma area and the Lake Chad basin, notably in Niger (-5.5 percent), Nigeria (-5.7 percent), and Chad (-7.2 percent). Insecurity and armed conflicts have hindered access to fields and prevented some producers from harvesting. Despite these challenges, the off-season campaign in the Sahel Region has seen good availability of horticultural products in both rural and urban markets.
Rainfall Forecast: The onset of the rainy season in the bimodal zone of the Gulf of Guinea countries is expected in late February/early March, with varying levels of rainfall predicted across the region. Seasonal forecasts indicate normal to above-average rainfall from March to June 2024 in certain areas, which bodes well for agricultural production. However, below-average rainfall is forecasted in some coastal regions, which could impact agricultural yields in those areas.
Price Trends: From January to February 2024, staple food prices exhibited mixed trends across the region. While some countries experienced stable or decreasing prices due to post-harvest trends, others saw increases, particularly in areas with production deficits. Factors such as below-average supplies, high production and transportation costs, insecurity, and trade restrictions have contributed to maintaining elevated price levels in the Sahel Region. Additionally, strong demand, high global prices, and increased transaction costs have driven up prices in coastal countries like Cameroon and Togo. In Nigeria, annual inflation has reached a record high, further exacerbating food price increases.
Food Insecurity Levels: The majority of areas in West Africa are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until September 2024. However, areas affected by civil insecurity, particularly those experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, are expected to persist until May 2024. These areas include various provinces in Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Mali, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are currently observed in certain provinces and regions due to limited household food stocks and restricted access to markets and humanitarian aid. Although the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Djibo municipality in Burkina Faso is low, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) remains the most likely scenario, given the depletion of income sources and persistent consumption gaps.
Outlook: Food insecurity is expected to worsen during the lean season, with an expansion of areas in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) across the region, particularly in the northern parts of affected countries. Additionally, populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are likely to increase in the most inaccessible areas.
In summary, while there are positive indicators such as favorable rainfall forecasts, ongoing conflicts and other factors continue to pose significant challenges to food security in West Africa.
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