TOKYO — A recent report by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicates a significant shift in global food demand dynamics, forecasting India to surpass China as the primary driver over the next decade. The divergence in economic trajectories and population trends between the two nations is cited as the key factor behind this projected change.
According to the FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)’s Agricultural Outlook, consumption of agricultural products, including animal feed and fuel, is anticipated to grow by an average of 1.1% annually in calorie terms through 2033. Notably, nearly 94% of this growth is expected to occur in middle and low-income countries, prominently featuring India, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.
China, which accounted for 28% of the increase in food demand from 2013 to 2023, is projected to see its share decline sharply to just 11% in the coming decade. Meanwhile, India’s share is poised to expand from 13% to 20%, underscoring its rising influence on global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa, buoyed by a rapidly growing population, is forecasted to increase its share from 10% to 18%.
The shift is also reflected in staple food consumption forecasts. While China’s wheat consumption is expected to rise modestly by 2.6% to 147 million tonnes by 2033, India’s is set to surge by 27.7% to 137 million tonnes during the same period, approaching parity with its northern neighbor. Similar trends are projected for rice consumption, with India’s demand showing significant growth compared to China’s stagnation.
The divergence is attributed to expectations of a declining population and stagnant incomes in China, contrasting with India’s anticipated population growth and improving living standards.
The potential impact of evolving dietary preferences on these projections remains uncertain. Despite having comparable population sizes, China currently consumes approximately 12 times more meat annually than India, driven largely by economic growth. However, the FAO-OECD report suggests that as India’s economy expands, shifts in dietary habits could profoundly affect global supply and demand dynamics, particularly for animal feed.
Overall, food consumption is expected to rise more rapidly in emerging and developing nations compared to developed countries. In Africa, where the population is projected to grow from 1.49 billion to 1.8 billion by 2033, substantial increases in wheat, corn, and rice consumption — ranging from 22% to 42% — are anticipated.
Nevertheless, the report highlights uncertainties posed by geopolitical tensions and the increasing frequency of severe weather events linked to climate change, such as droughts and heat waves, which threaten agricultural productivity globally. It is estimated that climate change could render about 10% of arable land unusable by mid-century.
Addressing food loss and waste within supply chains emerges as a critical strategy to stabilize the global food supply. The report suggests that halving losses and waste in supply chains by 2030 could enhance food intake significantly in low and lower-middle-income countries, potentially reducing global undernourishment by 25%.
In conclusion, while India emerges as a pivotal player in shaping future food demand, the ability of global supply chains to meet this growing demand remains contingent upon addressing climate risks and optimizing food distribution systems worldwide.
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