Cocoa prices have surged to their highest levels in over a week, buoyed by mounting concerns over tightening supplies from the world’s largest producer, Ivory Coast. The spike in prices was notably sharp on Monday, with futures approaching a record high set just last month.
Recent data reveals that cocoa bean arrivals at Ivorian ports for the current season have reached 1.11 million tons as of Sunday. While this marks a 27% increase from last year—when adverse weather severely impacted harvests—the growth rate has slowed. This year’s gain is down from a 35% increase seen in early December, raising concerns among market watchers.
The slowdown in supply growth coincides with an emerging threat to the cocoa market: increasingly dry conditions across West Africa, exacerbated by the Harmattan winds. These conditions are particularly concerning for both the ongoing main crop and the upcoming mid-crop harvests, with the region’s weather patterns putting further strain on an already tight market.
Côte d’Ivoire remains the world’s largest exporter of cocoa beans, with exports valued at $3.3 billion in 2023, according to data from IndexBox. Ecuador follows at $1.2 billion, while Ghana rounds out the top three with exports valued at $1.1 billion. On the import side, the Netherlands is the largest consumer, with imports totaling $2.4 billion, followed by Malaysia at $1.5 billion and Germany at $1.4 billion.
As the global cocoa market grapples with these challenges, industry stakeholders are closely monitoring further developments in West Africa, as any additional disruptions to supply could significantly impact global cocoa prices and availability.
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