On January 19, the final day of Joe Biden’s presidency, I visited my local supermarket and noted the prices of 28 grocery items, including staples like milk, eggs, bacon, and potatoes. Six weeks into Donald Trump’s second term, I returned to the same store to track the prices of the same items.
Why conduct this price check?
During the 2020 presidential campaign, voters often cited the high cost of groceries as a major concern, with many blaming inflation for the rising prices that were increasingly straining household budgets. Trump, seizing on these concerns, promised a solution, claiming that if elected, food prices would drop immediately.
“A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper,” he declared on the campaign trail.
Trump’s promise to lower prices on Day 1 seemed optimistic, considering the complexity of market forces. Even a casual observer would understand that the price of groceries doesn’t change overnight due to the work of a president alone. Prices are influenced by a multitude of factors that are beyond the reach of any single political leader.
Yet many voters, particularly those for whom inflation was a pressing concern, rallied behind Trump’s promise. A survey found that two-thirds of voters who considered inflation the most important issue voted for him.
However, after Trump secured the presidency, his stance shifted. In December, he acknowledged the difficulties in lowering prices quickly, citing the need to address supply chain problems and increase domestic energy production as ways to reduce food costs. Still, he pinned the blame for high prices on President Biden, admitting that “it’s hard to bring things down once they’re up.”
This wasn’t the first time Trump had overpromised and underdelivered. In his first term, he vowed to bring down healthcare costs immediately—another promise that faltered despite a Republican-controlled Congress.
Economists, including Daniel A. Sumner, a professor at the University of California, Davis, caution against simplistic views of grocery pricing. Supermarkets operate on narrow profit margins, and raising prices on certain items may necessitate lowering the prices of others to balance consumer spending. Even when stores take a hit by keeping prices low on some products, they tend to raise prices elsewhere to make up the difference.
“Raising consumer incomes is the best approach,” said Sumner. “It’s not about food prices alone—it’s about food prices in relation to people’s incomes.”
Although Trump’s promise of immediate price drops may have been unrealistic, some of his policies could eventually contribute to changes in food prices. It remains to be seen whether they will lower or increase costs.
David L. Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, echoed the sentiment that a president has limited influence on grocery prices, particularly in the short term. Ortega attributed the steep price increases in recent years to a confluence of global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, severe droughts, and bird flu outbreaks, all of which have disrupted food production.
Climate change, too, has played a significant role in impacting food prices. Though a president can work to stabilize markets, Ortega argued that Trump’s policies—such as tariffs, deportations, and budget cuts to agencies responsible for food safety—have contributed to uncertainty and inflationary pressure.
Returning to my grocery comparison at a Vons store in Eagle Rock, I found the prices largely unchanged since my visit in January. Trump had used similar grocery items, such as Cheerios, butter, eggs, and bacon, as campaign props to highlight inflation during his election run.
When I checked the prices of the same 28 items, I found that 24 of them were the same price, to the penny, between Biden’s last day in office and Trump’s second term. However, four items saw price changes.
- Thomas’ bagels (6 count) rose from $5.79 to $5.89.
- A dozen Lucerne Grade AA large eggs increased from $7.49 to $9.99.
- An 8.9-ounce box of Cheerios dropped from $5.99 to $5.29.
- Navel oranges decreased from $1.29 per pound to $0.99.
In total, my grocery bill under Biden’s presidency was $146.03. Under Trump’s second term, the total rose to $147.63.
It seems that grocery prices may not be dropping as quickly as Trump promised. And while I considered throwing eggs in frustration, they were simply too expensive.
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