BEIJING (Reuters) – China, renowned as the world’s largest agriculture importer, is embarking on an ambitious journey to curtail its dependence on overseas food supplies over the next decade, aligning with its imperative for food security. However, experts caution that achieving these goals will prove to be a formidable task.
Facing constraints of limited land and water resources, China aims to significantly enhance agricultural productivity through technological advancements, including the adoption of genetically modified crops, and expansion of cultivated land, to realize Beijing’s 10-year projections.
According to a document released in late April, the government envisions achieving 92% self-sufficiency in staple grains and beans by 2033, marking a substantial increase from the 84% achieved during the period of 2021-2023. These objectives are in line with President Xi Jinping’s ambition to transform China into an “agriculture power” by the mid-century.
The reduction of imports would pose challenges to exporting nations such as the U.S., Brazil, and Indonesia, which have geared up their production capacities to meet the demands of China’s vast population, constituting the world’s largest market for soybeans, meat, and grains.
Over the span of the next decade, the Ministry of Agriculture projects a drastic decline in corn imports by 75%, reaching 6.8 million tons, and a 60% drop in wheat imports to 4.85 million tons. Similarly, soybean imports, a substantial component of China’s agricultural imports totaling $234 billion last year, are expected to decrease by 21% to 78.7 million tons within a decade.
However, analysts express skepticism regarding China’s ability to meet these targets, citing challenges primarily stemming from land and water scarcity. “Forecasting a sharp reversal where in 10 years the country will be importing less than it does today seems questionable,” remarked Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting.
In stark contrast to Beijing’s projections, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipates China’s corn imports in 2033/34 to remain relatively consistent with current levels, with wheat imports declining by 20%. Moreover, USDA predicts a 39% increase in soybean imports, highlighting a significant disparity in outlooks.
The urgency to bolster food security has been accentuated by China’s history of famine and the imperative to sustain nearly 20% of the global population with a disproportionately small portion of arable land and water resources. The disruptions in the food supply chain during the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade disputes with the U.S., have further underscored the need for self-reliance.
To address these challenges, China is implementing a food security law on June 1, emphasizing absolute self-sufficiency in staple grains and mandating the inclusion of food security in local governments’ economic and development plans. Additionally, recent initiatives include enhanced grains insurance coverage for farmers and a concerted drive to augment grain output by at least 50 million tons by 2030, focusing on upgraded farmland and investments in seed technology.
Nevertheless, soil degradation and pollution present formidable obstacles. Despite efforts to reclaim uncultivated land and encourage farmers to prioritize staple crops, production growth remains constrained by insufficient arable land, small-scale production, and inadequate agricultural technology.
The government’s commitment to soil preservation is underscored by ongoing surveys, with a forthcoming completion of a four-year soil survey in 2025. However, challenges persist, with 40% of arable land already degraded due to chemical overuse and heavy metal contamination.
To mitigate these challenges, China is investing in research aimed at cultivating water-intensive crops in arid regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. However, transitioning to saline-tolerant crops and expanding farmland necessitates substantial investments in irrigation, fertilization, and biotechnology, alongside addressing structural impediments such as fragmented farms and an aging agricultural workforce.
In a gradual departure from traditional practices, China is embracing genetically modified crops, approving varieties of corn, soybeans, and wheat engineered for higher yields and resistance to pests and diseases. However, analysts caution that achieving self-sufficiency in soybeans, a critical component of China’s diet for tofu production, remains a formidable challenge, given constraints in land availability and the predominant prevalence of small-scale farms.
Carl Pray, an agriculture professor at Rutgers University, contends that even with concerted efforts, China may only marginally reduce its dependence on soybean imports, owing to the inherent limitations in land resources. “To produce enough soybeans to replace the Brazilian and U.S. imports, there is just not enough land,” Pray remarked.
As China navigates the complexities of achieving food security amidst land, soil, and water challenges, the path forward necessitates a multi-faceted approach encompassing technological innovation, sustainable agricultural practices, and strategic policy interventions.
